UDC 330.322.14
The relevance of this article stems from the risk of deviations in a market economy, whereby actual project cash flows deviate from planned ones, altering the economic performance of investments. The authors attempt to develop a method that makes it possible to define and describe multiple discount rate zones depending on the magnitude of cash flow deviation (risk) during investment project implementation. The subject of this study is a methodology for assessing investment project risks through the development of multiple discount rates corresponding to different levels of cash flow deviation, allowing for a more accurate accounting of risk when assessing investment effectiveness. Using formulas for calculating dynamic rates, it is possible to determine threshold values for discount rates that divide the spectrum of possible values into zones (spectra) with corresponding risks and alternative returns for the investment project. To simplify memorization, each zone is color-coded based on its discount boundaries. The authors' use of the discount spectrum method allows them to determine the risk level and the potential for generating annual returns for an investment project, depending on changing cash flow dynamics. Each discount within a specific color spectrum has clearly defined requirements for the growth rates of cash inflows and outflows. A common characteristic of the discount spectrum is the WARP (weighted average expected return) formula proposed by the authors, which can be used as the most probable value of a project's internal rate of return (IRR). By eliminating the IRR's drawback of being tied to budgeted cash flow growth rates, this method allows for the analysis of a wide range of internal rate of return values under established conditions.
discount spectrum, risk, investment, method, payback period, internal rate of return
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