The paper analyses the influence of the forthcoming climate changes on commodity flows of grain, milk and meat in European part of Russia. The methodological approach relies on applying a non-parametric representation of production frontier that accounts for uncertainty to the behavioral linear programming model of allocation of Russia's agricultural branches. The results are based on the comparison of changes in commodity flows that are foreseen under two different scenarios: the existing climate and global warming. The latter scenario is defined via the changed location of natural and agricultural groups of regions.