Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions

Ilia Aksenov; Grigory Trunin; Maxim Fabrikov; Nadezhda Khrustaleva; Karina Nazvanova; Ivan Roshchin

doi:10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202

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ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET AND CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAIN EXPORTS FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions

АА Аа

Published in INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL · Issue 2 · Pages 202–206 · Rubric: Agrarian reform and forms of managing

DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202

Received: 02.01.2026 Accepted: 11.02.2026 Published: 15.04.2026

Authors

Ilia Aksenov

ORCID

Grigory Trunin

ORCID

Maxim Fabrikov

ORCID

Nadezhda Khrustaleva

ORCID

et al.

Karina Nazvanova

ORCID

Ivan Roshchin

Ilia Aksenov

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Vladimir State University associate professor of the department · department of state law and customs management · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ORCID

Grigory Trunin

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Vladimir State University associate professor of the department · department of financial law and customs activities · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ORCID

Maxim Fabrikov

Academic degree: doctor of pedagogical sciences

Science rang: docent

Vladimir State University vice-rector for economics and infrastructure development; head of the department of technological and economic education · department of technological and economic education · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ORCID

Nadezhda Khrustaleva

Vladimir State University senior lecturer at the department · department of technological and economic education · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ORCID

Karina Nazvanova

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Science rang: docent

Vladimir State University associate professor of the department · department of management and marketing · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ORCID

Ivan Roshchin

Academic degree: candidate of economic sciences

Vladimir State University associate professor of the department · department of technological and economic education · Russian Federation · Vladimir

ABSTRACT

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global wheat market as a key segment of the global agricultural and food market. It examines current trends in wheat production, changes in crop acreage, and the factors determining yield growth in various regions of the world. Particular attention is paid to the structure of global production and the distribution of leading positions among the largest grain-producing countries. The dynamics of global wheat exports are analyzed, identifying the main exporting countries and their role in shaping global supply. A significant portion of the study is devoted to analyzing the Russian Federation's export activity under sanctions restrictions, changes in logistics routes, transformation of financial payment mechanisms, and the reorientation of export flows to alternative markets. The article examines the challenges arising in foreign economic activity in the grain sector, as well as ways to address them using government support measures. The paper presents forecast estimates for wheat production and exports in Russia through 2030, taking into account climatic, economic, and institutional factors. The results can be used in developing strategies for the development of the agro-industrial complex, planning foreign trade operations, and formulating state agricultural policy.

KEYWORDS

global wheat market, grain production, wheat exports, foreign economic activity, agro-industrial complex, sanctions restrictions, logistics, government support, food security

Funding

This work was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of the federal budget under a state assignment (the title of the research topic is «Development and implementation of a strategy for the development of foreign economic relations of agriculture and the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation taking into account sanctions restrictions and new priorities for economic cooperation with foreign countries»; the code of the research topic assigned by the founder is FZUN-2024-0007).

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GOST

Aksenov I. A., Trunin G. A., Fabrikov M. S., Khrustaleva N. V., Nazvanova K. V., Roshchin I. N. Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions // INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL. 2026. no. 2. pp. 202-206. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202. (Date of access 23.10.2026).

MLA

Ilia Aksenov, Trunin G. A., Fabrikov M. S., Khrustaleva N. V., Nazvanova K. V., Roshchin I. N.. "Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL.2 (2026): 202-206. DOI: https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202.

APA

Aksenov I. A., Trunin G. A., Fabrikov M. S., Khrustaleva N. V., Nazvanova K. V., Roshchin I. N. (2026). Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions. INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL(2), 202-206. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202

Chicago

Ilia Aksenov, Trunin G. A., Fabrikov M. S., Khrustaleva N. V., Nazvanova K. V., Roshchin I. N.. "Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions." INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL, no. 2 (2026): 202-206. https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Aksenov I. A., Trunin G. A., Fabrikov M. S., Khrustaleva N. V., Nazvanova K. V., Roshchin I. N. | title = Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions | journal = INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL JOURNAL | year = 2026 | issue = 2 | pages = 202-206 | doi = 10.55186/25876740_2026_69_2_202 }}

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ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL WHEAT MARKET AND CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAIN EXPORTS FROM THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS Analysis of the global wheat market and characteristics of grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current geopolitical conditions

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