UDC 336.76
UDC 330.43
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of public statements, regulatory actions, and major events on the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Dogecoin. The research analyzes behavioral patterns in market reactions to both positive and negative news, evaluates the volatility and stability of the cryptocurrency market, and investigates correlations among selected digital assets. The research hypothesis suggests that market sentiment and external information factors significantly influence cryptocurrency price movements, with the level of information volatility acting as a key determinant. The methodological framework of the study includes graphical and statistical analysis methods, such as correlation analysis and time series analysis and forecasting (Holt’s method). The data set consists of more than 2,700 daily observations covering the period from 2017 to 2024.The results reveal a strong correlation between the reactions of Bitcoin and Ethereum (0.93), as well as between Dogecoin and Ethereum (0.84), indicating similar price movement patterns in response to information triggers. Highly volatile assets such as Dogecoin and Ripple demonstrate stronger and more prolonged reactions to positive news, whereas relatively stable cryptocurrencies tend to stabilize more quickly. Negative events, particularly those related to regulation and crises, have a more persistent and significant negative impact on the market. The findings also indicate increasing market resilience associated with the growth in the number of investors.The practical significance of the research lies in providing recommendations for investors on accounting for information volatility in order to minimize risks and take advantage of speculative opportunities arising from information-driven price fluctuations. Overall, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of the structure of the cryptocurrency market and the key factors influencing its development.
cryptocurrency market dynamics, market capitalization, daily cryptocurrency returns, cryptocurrency news sentiment, informational event effect, market manipulation, cryptocurrency infovolatility, investor behavior, trading volume
1. M. Wątorek, J. Kwapień, and S. Drożdż, "Cryptocurrencies are becoming part of the world global financial market", Entropy, vol. 25, no. 2, p. 377, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/e25020377; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/QEOWZW
2. Forbes. "Crypto Prices." [Online]. Available: https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/crypto-prices/?sh=38092c224785. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
3. Visual Capitalist. "The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Chart." [Online]. Available: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-109-trillion-global-stock-market-in-one-chart/. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
4. E. F. Fama, L. Fisher, M. C. Jensen, and R. Roll, "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 1–21, 1969. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2525569
5. L. Nizzoli, S. Tardelli, M. Avvenuti, S. Cresci, M. Tesconi, and E. Ferrara, "Charting the Landscape of Online Cryptocurrency Manipulation," IEEE Access, vol. 8, pp. 110560–110570, Jun. 2020.
6. EconOne, "Cryptocurrency market manipulation." [Online]. Available: https://econone.com/resources/blogs/cryptocurrency-market-manipulation/?utm_source=chatgpt.com. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
7. The Art Newspaper, "How a new digital art market could mimic the traditional one—including in bad ways," Apr. 29, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.theartnewspaper.com/2021/04/29/how-a-new-digital-art-market-could-mimic-the-traditional-oneincluding-in-bad-ways?utm_source=chatgpt.com. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
8. N. Kyriazis, S. Papadamou, P. Tzeremes, and S. Corbet, "The differential influence of social media sentiment on cryptocurrency returns and volatility during COVID-19", The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 89, pp. 307–317, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.09.004
9. D. Petti and I. Sergio, "Bank crisis boosts Bitcoin price", Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 17, no. 4, p. 134, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17040134; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/UBFXJT
10. LearnCrypto, "Forex vs Crypto Trading: Similarities and Differences." [Online]. Available: https://learncrypto.com/knowledge-base/how-to-trade-crypto/forex-vs-crypto-trading-similarities-and-differences?utm_source=chatgpt.com. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
11. S. E. Schoenherr, "The Digital Revolution", Smart Encyclopedia, May 5, 2004. [Online]. Available: https://smartencyclopedia.org/content/digital-revolution. [Accessed: September 24, 2025].
12. M. Hilbert, "A review of large-scale 'how much information' inventories: variations, achievements and challenges", Information Research, vol. 20, no. 4, 2015.
13. M. Roser, "AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?", Published online at OurWorldInData.org, 2023.
14. L. O. Petram, The world’s first stock exchange: how the Amsterdam market for Dutch East India Company shares became a modern securities market, 1602-1700, Thesis, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Eigen Beheer, 2011.
15. P. Temin, "The Economy of the Early Roman Empire", Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 133-151, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/089533006776526148
16. Bankrate. "Types of Cryptocurrency." [Online]. Available: https://www.bankrate.com/investing/types-of-cryptocurrency/. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
17. Investopedia. "E-Cash." [Online]. Available: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ecash.asp. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
18. D. Chaum, R. L. Rivest, and A. T. Sherman, Eds., Advances in Cryptology, Boston, MA: Springer.
19. W. Dai, “B-Money,” 1998. [Online]. Available: http://www.weidai.com/bmoney.txt (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
20. N. Szabo, "Bit Gold," 1998. [Online]. Available: https://www.szabo.best/economics/bitgold.pdf (Accessed: December 14, 2024).
21. A. Back, "Hashcash," May 1997. [Online]. Available: http://www.cypherspace.org/hashcash/ (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
22. H. Finney, "Reusable proof of work (RPOW)," 2004. [Online]. Available: https://www.rpow.org/ (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
23. CoinMarketCap. "Cryptocurrency Prices, Charts and Market Capitalizations." [Online]. Available: https://coinmarketcap.com. (Accessed: September 24, 2025)
24. Eurochange. "World Currency Abbreviations, Symbols, and Codes." [Online]. Available: https://www.eurochange.co.uk/travel/tips/world-currency-abbreviations-symbols-and-codes-travel-money. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
25. Investopedia. "Who Trades Forex and Why?" [Online]. Available: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/who-trades-forex-and-why.asp#:~:text=It%20is%20this%20type%20of,Japanese%20yen%2C%20and%20the%20euro. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
26. Statista. "Leading Virtual Currencies Globally by Purchase Volume." [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/655511/leading-virtual-currencies-globally-by-purchase-volume/#:~:text=Bitcoin%27s%20popularity%20surged%20in%202020,cryptocurrency%20on%20online%20exchanges%20since. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
27. Forbes. "Crypto Prices." [Online]. Available: https://www.forbes.com/digital-assets/crypto-prices/?sh=38092c224785. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
28. Visual Capitalist. "The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Chart." [Online]. Available: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-109-trillion-global-stock-market-in-one-chart/. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
29. The Decision Lab. "Richard Thaler." [Online]. Available: https://thedecisionlab.com/thinkers/economics/richard-thaler. (Accessed: January 13, 2024).
30. R. Shah, "The influence of social media on stock market trends", Medium, Dec. 12, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://medium.com/@rohanshah0502/the-influence-of-social-media-on-stock-market-trends-feed4365f64e (Accessed: September 24, 2025)
31. M. T. Chimienti, U. Kochanska, and A. Pinna, "Understanding the crypto-asset phenomenon, its risks and measurement issues", ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5/2019, European Central Bank, 2019.
32. World Bank Blogs, "Fear, uncertainty, and doubt: Global regulatory challenges and crypto insolvencies." [Online]. Available: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/psd/fear-uncertainty-and-doubt-global-regulatory-challenges-crypto-insolvencies (Accessed: December 10, 2024)
33. NPR. "Dogecoin spikes after Elon Musk changes Twitter logo to Doge’s symbol." [Online]. Available: https://www.npr.org/2023/04/04/1167877216/dogecoin-elon-musk-twitter-logo#:~:text=The%20price%20for%20cryptocurrency%20Dogecoin,the%20last%20couple%20of%20years. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
34. CoinMarketCap. "Memes." [Online]. Available: https://coinmarketcap.com/view/memes/. (Accessed: January 13, 2024).
35. CoinGecko. "How Many Cryptocurrencies Failed?" [Online]. Available: https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/how-many-cryptocurrencies-failed. (Accessed: September 24, 2025)
36. L. Ante, “How Elon Musk's Twitter activity moves cryptocurrency markets”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 186, part A, 2023, 122112, ISSN 0040-1625. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122112
37. BitRawr, "Demonetized currencies." [Online]. Available: https://www.bitrawr.com/demonetized-currencies (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
38. Š. Lyócsa, P. Molnár, T. Plíhal, and M. Širanová, "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation, and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of Bitcoin", Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol. 119, p. 103980, 2020.
39. S. Corbet, C. Larkin, B. Lucey, A. Meegan, and L. Yarovaya, "Cryptocurrency reaction to FOMC announcements: Evidence of heterogeneity based on blockchain stack position", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 68, p. 101240, 2020.
40. I. Makarov and A. Schoar, "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets", Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 135, no. 2, pp. 293-319, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.07.001; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/WAUINC
41. I. Mužić and I. Gržeta, "Expectations of macroeconomic news announcements: Bitcoin vs. traditional assets", Risks, vol. 10, no. 6, p. 123, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10060123; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/WBANLS
42. E. Mnif, A. Jarboui, and K. Mouakhar, "How the cryptocurrency market has performed during COVID-19? A multifractal analysis", Finance Research Letters, vol. 36, p. 101647, 2020.
43. B. N. Ashraf, "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?", Research in International Business and Finance, vol. 54, p. 101249, 2020.
44. M. Khan and M. Khan, "Cryptomarket Volatility in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of GARCH Models", Economic Research Guardian, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 170-181, Dec. 2021.
45. N. Antonakakis, I. Chatziantoniou, and D. Gabauer, "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 61, pp. 37-51, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.02.003
46. M. Hashemi Joo, Y. Nishikawa, and K. Dandapani, “Announcement effects in the cryptocurrency market”, Applied Economics, vol. 52, no. 44, pp. 4794–4808, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1745747; EDN: https://elibrary.ru/EEVOHT
47. E. Öget, “The Effect of Positive and Negative Events on Cryptocurrency Prices”, Ekonomi Politika Ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 16–31, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1011204
48. G. Aggarwal, V. Patel, G. Varshney, and K. Taylor, “Understanding the Social Factors Affecting the Cryptocurrency Market”, 2019.
49. S. Gunay, “Impact of public information arrivals on cryptocurrency market: A case of twitter posts on Ripple”, East Asian Economic Review, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 149–168, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2019.23.2.359
50. S. Corbet, C. J. Larkin, B. M. Lucey, A. Meegan, and L. Yarovaya, “The Volatility Generating Effects of Macroeconomic News on Cryptocurrency Returns”, Mar. 16, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3141986
51. M. Park and S. Chai, “The Effect of Information Asymmetry on Investment Behavior in Cryptocurrency Market”, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24251/HICSS.2020.494
52. K. Kulbhaskar, A. Anamika, and S. Subramaniam, “Do News Headlines Matter in the Cryptocurrency Market?”, Applied Economics, Oct. 22, 2021.
53. S. Hyde, “News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2020.
54. T. Bakhtiar, X. Luo, and I. Adelopo, "Network effects and store-of-value features in the cryptocurrency market", Technology in Society, vol. 74, p. 102320, 2023.
55. C. Esparcia, A. Escribano, and F. Jareño, "Did cryptomarket chaos unleash Silvergate's bankruptcy? Investigating the high-frequency volatility and connectedness behind the collapse", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 89, p. 101851, 2023.
56. CoinRanking, “Cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization.” [Online]. Available: https://coinranking.com/?sortby=desc&sorton=market-cap. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
57. Visual Capitalist, “Ranked: Top performing cryptocurrencies in 2024.” [Online]. Available: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-top-performing-cryptocurrencies-in-2024/. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
58. PlasBit, "What is the most mentioned crypto on Twitter." [Online]. Available: https://plasbit.com/blog/what-is-the-most-mentioned-crypto-on-twitter. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
59. New Straits Times, "Tech: Top 10 most mentioned cryptocurrencies on social media in 2021." [Online]. Available: https://www.nst.com.my/lifestyle/bots/2021/12/757175/tech-top-10-most-mentioned-cryptocurrencies-social-media-2021. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
60. Barron's, “Dogecoin started as a joke, now it’s too important to laugh off.” [Online]. Available: https://www.barrons.com/articles/dogecoin-started-as-a-joke-now-its-too-important-to-laugh-off-51620229273. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
61. Investing.com, “Bitcoin historical data.” [Online]. Available: https://www.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
62. Investing.com, “Ethereum historical data.” [Online]. Available: https://www.investing.com/crypto/ethereum/historical-data. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
63. Investing.com, “XRP historical data.” [Online]. Available: https://www.investing.com/crypto/xrp/historical-data. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
64. Investing.com, “Dogecoin historical data.” [Online]. Available: https://www.investing.com/crypto/dogecoin/historical-data. (Accessed: September 24, 2025).
65. E. Zivot, Introduction to Computational Finance and Financial Econometrics with R. Springer, 2019.
66. C. C. Holt, “Forecasting Seasonals and Trends by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages”, ONR Memorandum, vol. 52, Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh, 1957. [Available from the Engineering Library, University of Texas, Austin].
67. D. G. Luenberger, Investment Science. Oxford University Press, 1998, ISBN: 0-19-510809-4.
68. CNN, “Bitcoin reaches $100K amid Trump-driven speculation.” [Online]. Available: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/04/tech/bitcoin-100k-trump-hnk-intl/index.html. (Accessed: July 7, 2025).
