Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
VAK Russia 5.2.3
UDC 330.1
UDC 332.1
UDC 338.432
The study is dedicated to analyzing the dynamics of Russia's agricultural potential under the intensification of agricultural production. The aim of the study is to investigate changes in agricultural potential, identify latent variables determining its transformation, and develop a composite index reflecting the level and trends in the development of the country’s agro-industrial complex (AIC). The research is based on the analysis of official statistics (data from Rosstat and the World Bank) characterizing the indicators of Russia's AIC from 2000 to 2023. The average annual growth rate of grain yield amounted to 3.2%, reaching 3,428.7 kg/ha by 2023, while fertilizer consumption increased from 11 kg/ha to 25.3 kg/ha. The share of agriculture in GDP decreased from 5.88% to 4.02%, indicating structural changes in the sector and adaptation to macroeconomic conditions. The methodological framework of the study includes regression modeling (including Lasso and Ridge regressions), factor analysis, statistical methods of correlation analysis, and the construction of composite indices. The results identified that the key factors influencing agricultural efficiency include the area of arable land, irrigated land area, fertilizer consumption, and the volume of grain production. The composite index of agricultural potential, calculated based on weighted indicators, increased from 0.31 to 0.67 over the analyzed period. Factor analysis highlighted latent variables explaining over 94% of data variability: the first factor reflects the impact of resource use intensity, the second characterizes production capabilities, and the third reflects macroeconomic conditions. The obtained results can be used to shape policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of agricultural resource utilization, develop programs to stimulate producers, and outline development trajectories for the agricultural sector.
agro-industrial complex, factor analysis, agricultural potential, intensive production, composite index, macroeconomic indicators, statistical analysis
1. Razvitie APK i sel'skih territoriy: problemy i perspektivy. Pod red. A.O. Hramchenkovoy. M.: Pervoe izdatel'stvo, 2022. 268 s.
2. Formirovanie novoy strategii Rossii: ot ekonomicheskoy ustoychivosti k operezhayuschemu razvitiyu. Pod red. V.V. Sorokozherd'eva. M.: Nauchno-issledovatel'skiy institut istorii, ekonomiki i prava, 2024. 266 s.
3. Zaytsev A., Dmitriev N., Kichigin O. Diagnostics of Regions Resource Potential in the Context of Socio-Economic Development // International Journal of Professional Business Review. 2023. № 8. Vol. 10. P. e03160.
4. Zaytsev A., Dmitriev N., Barykin S. Resource Potential of Socio-Economic Development in the Regional Sustainability Context: the Role of Energy Security and Environment // IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2023. Vol. 1275. P. 012041.
5. Bashmachnikov V.F. Fermerstvo semeynogo tipa: potencial, praktika razvitiya. M.: Breyn, 2022. 470 s.
6. Rodionov D.G., Eremina I.A., Aleksandrovich Yu.A. Osobennosti primeneniya innovacionnyh tehnologiy prodvizheniya produkcii v usloviyah importozamescheniya // Estestvenno-gumanitarnye issledovaniya. 2023. № 6(50). S. 400-406.
7. Berishvili O., Rudneva T., Pecherskaya E., Karaseva E. Pedagogical Tools and Economic and Mathematical Methods in Agricultural Production Management. In: Mantulenko V. (ed.) Global Challenges and Prospects of the Modern Economic Development. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences. Vol. 57. 2019. P. 166-176.
8. Ainakulov Z., Akhmetov K., Ospanov S., Kurmankulova G., Tengaeva A., Schüle H., Kurmanbek T. Economic and Mathematical Modelling of Estimating the Use of Basic Production Resources of Agricultural Formations // AIP Conf. Proc. 2024. Vol. 3033(1). P. 020022.
9. Msangi S., MacEwan D. Applied Methods for Agriculture and Natural Resource Management: A Festschrift in Honor of Richard E. Howitt. Cham: Springer, 2019.
10. Popova V.B., Smagin B.I. Ekonomiko-statisticheskoe issledovanie effektivnosti agrarnogo proizvodstva. Michurinsk: MichGAU, 2010. 166 s.
11. Dmitriev N.D. Razvitie rentnyh podhodov k upravleniyu intellektual'nym kapitalom na promyshlennyh predpriyatiyah. Sankt-Peterburg: SPbPU, 2023. 450 s.
12. Sidorenko V.V., Makarevich O.A. Gosudarstvennoe regulirovanie agrarnoy ekonomiki Rossii. Krasnodar: Mir Kubani, 2017. 399 s.
13. Sidorenko V.V. Agrarnaya politika i prodovol'stvennaya bezopasnost' Rossii. Krasnodar: Mir Kubani, 2017. 357 s.
14. Mel'nikov A., Sidorenko V., Mihaylushkin P., Makarevich O. Formirovanie koncepcii sistemy gosudarstvennogo regulirovaniya APK // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2017. № 4. S. 37-40.
15. Trubilin A., Sidorenko V., Mihaylushkin P., Batalov D. Sovremennye problemy agrarnyh preobrazovaniy v Rossii // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2017. № 1. S. 26-30.
16. Sidorenko V., Mihaylushkin P., Batalov D. Sostoyanie i perspektivy obespecheniya prodovol'stvennoy bezopasnosti importozamescheniya v Rossii // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2016. № 4. S. 38-41.
17. Trubilin A., Sidorenko V., Mihaylushkin P. Konkurentosposobnost' agrarnogo sektora ekonomiki // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2016. № 5. S. 4-8.
18. Sidorenko V.V., Trubilin A.I., Mel'nikov A.B., Mihaylushkin P.V. Intensifikaciya – osnova razvitiya sel'skoy ekonomiki Rossii // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2018. № 1. S. 14-19.
19. Ushachev I.G., Harina M.V., Chekalin V.S. Dolgosrochnyy prognoz razvitiya sel'skogo hozyaystva Rossii na baze ekonomiko-matematicheskoy modeli // Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2022. № 3. S. 64-77.
20. Potapov A.P. Modelirovanie vliyaniya resursnyh faktorov na vypusk produkcii agrarnogo proizvodstva // Ekonomicheskie i social'nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz. 2020. № 4. S. 154-168.
21. Polyanin A.V., Rodionov D.G. Metodologicheskie aspekty regional'noy ekonomicheskoy politiki na osnove orientacii predprinimatel'skih struktur // Regional'naya i otraslevaya ekonomika. 2024. № 1. S. 67-73.
22. Polyanin A.V., Rodionov D.G. Industrializaciya predprinimatel'skih struktur v ramkah regional'noy ekonomicheskoy politiki // Industrial'naya ekonomika. 2023. № 5. S. 91-96.
