Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
UDC 631.1
UDC 338.43
The key development areas for Russia's agri-food sector through 2030 include raising scientific and technological standards, developing new export routes, creating a unified digital platform, and improving the quality of life of the rural population. Achieving these goals will be accompanied by significant structural shifts in innovation. The objective of the study is to improve methodological approaches to studying innovative structural changes in Russia's agri-food sector and assess its economic growth potential, taking into account changes in the sectoral structure and the transition to new information and digital technologies. Theoretical and methodological approaches to studying innovative structural shifts in the agri-food sector and their impact on economic growth have been developed. Proposals for improving mechanisms for managing innovative structural changes have been substantiated. The study revealed that innovative transformations have occurred in the production and processing of agri-food products over the past 10 years, as evidenced by an increase in gross value added, a decrease in production costs, and an increase in labor productivity. Trends in changing resource intensity of products in the Russian agri-food sector have been identified. A mathematical model of multivariate linear regression has been constructed, characterizing the influence of indicators of innovative structural shifts on changes in gross agricultural output. The results of calculations using the model indicate that the majority of the increase in labor productivity in the industry is achieved through investments and expenditures on innovation. The considered indicators of innovative structural shifts have a positive impact on the dynamics of agricultural production in Russia.
agri-food complex, investments, innovation policy, input-output balance, resource intensity, input-output tables, innovative structural changes, innovative technologies
1. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federacii ot 28 fevralya 2024 g. № 145 «O Strategii nauchno-tehnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federacii». Rezhim dostupa: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/408518353/ (data obrascheniya: 07.06.2025).
2. Pasinetti, L.L. (1993). Structural economic dynamics. Cambridge University Press, 203 p.
3. Miller, R.E., Blair, P.D. Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions. Cambridge University Press, 768 p.
4. Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R., Valentinyi, A. (2014). Growth and structural transformation. Handbook of economic growth, vol. 2, pp. 855-941.
5. Fan, S., Zhang, X., Robinson, S. (2003). Structural change and economic growth in China. Review of Development Economics, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 360-377.
6. Zhou, X., Cai, Z., Tan, K. H., Zhang, L., Du, J., Song M. (2021). Technological innovation and structural change for economic development in China as an emerging market. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 167, p. 120671.
7. Gabardo, F.A., Pereima, J.B., Einloft P. (2017). The incorporation of structural change into growth theory: A historical appraisal. EconomiA, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 392-410.
8. Vu, K.M. (2017). Structural change and economic growth: Empirical evidence andpolicy insights from Asian economies. Structural change and economic dynamics, vol. 4, pp.64-77.
9. Freire, C. (2019). Economic diversification: A model of structural economic dynamics and endogenous technological change. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pp. 13-28.
10. Zhavoronok A.V. Strukturnye cikly i tehnologicheskie perehody v sovremennoy ekonomike // Ekonomika i upravlenie. 2021. №. 3. S. 57-66.
11. Yakovenko N.A., Ivanenko I.S., Voronov A.S. Strukturnaya modernizaciya kak faktor rosta konkurentosposobnosti agroprodovol'stvennogo kompleksa Rossii // Mezhdunarodnyy sel'skohozyaystvennyy zhurnal. 2019. № 1 (367). S. 17-20.
12. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyy analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennyh usloviyah razvitiya ekonomiki // Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2022. № 5. S. 43-57.
13. Anfinogentova A.A. Ispol'zovanie metoda «zatraty-vypusk» dlya obosnovaniya strategicheskih proektov obespecheniya prodovol'stvennoy bezopasnosti Rossii // Ekonomika Severo-Zapada: problemy i perspektivy razvitiya. 2024. № 1 (76). S. 56-62. doi:https://doi.org/10.52897/2411-4588-2024-1-56-62
14. Potapov A.P. Vliyanie strukturnyh izmeneniy v resursnom potenciale na ustoychivoe razvitie agrarnogo proizvodstva // APK: ekonomika, upravlenie. 2024. № 5. S. 61-67. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/KNMQOA
15. Rizvanova M.A. Primenenie modeli mezhotraslevogo balansa V. Leont'eva v prognozirovanii ekonomiki // Vestnik Bashkirskogo universiteta. 2015. № 20 (3). S. 927-932.
16. Masakova I.D. Rossiyskaya praktika sostavleniya tablic «zatraty-vypusk»: problemy i perspektivy razvitiya // Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2019. № 2 (173). S. 14-26. EDN: https://elibrary.ru/AOIIBF
17. Derunova E.A., Vasil'chenko M.Ya., Shabanov V.L. Ocenka vliyaniya innovacionno-investicionnoy aktivnosti na formirovanie eksportno orientirovannoy agrarnoy ekonomiki // Ekonomicheskie i social'nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz. 2021. T 14. № 5. S. 100-115.
18. Ivanter V.V. Rol' mezhotraslevogo balansa v makroekonomicheskom analize i prognozirovanii // Problemy prognozirovaniya. 2018. № 6 (171). S. 3-6.
19. Bazovye tablicy «zatraty-vypusk» za 2011, 2016, 2021 g. Rezhim dostupa: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts (data obrascheniya: 10.08.2025).
20. Pravitel'stvo RF utverdilo plan dostizheniya nacional'nyh celey razvitiya. Rezhim dostupa: https://specagro.ru/news/202501/pravitelstvo-rf-utverdilo-plan-dostizheniya-nacionalnykh-celey-razvitiya (data obrascheniya: 17.05.2025).
21. Udel'nyy ves organizaciy, osuschestvlyayuschih tehnologicheskie innovacii, v obschem chisle obsledovannyh organizaciy, po Rossiyskoy Federacii, po vidam ekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti. Rezhim dostupa: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/154849?print=1# (data obrascheniya: 08.07.2025).
22. Innovacionnye tovary, raboty, uslugi, vnov' vnedrennye ili podvergavshiesya znachitel'nym tehnologicheskim izmeneniyam v techenie poslednih treh let po Rossiyskoy Federacii po vidam ekonomicheskoy deyatel'nosti. Rezhim dostupa: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/154849?print=1# (data obrascheniya: 08.07.2025).
23. VRP OKVED 2 (s 2016 g.). Rezhim dostupa: https://rosstat.gov.ru/statistics/accounts# (data obrascheniya: 20.07.2025).
24. Investicii v osnovnoy kapital. Rezhim dostupa: https://rosstat.gov.ru/investment_nonfinancial# (data obrascheniya: 20.07.2025).
25. Vlasova, V.V., Gohberg, L.M., Gracheva G.A. i dr. Indikatory innovacionnoy deyatel'nosti: 2025: statisticheskiy sbornik / NIU «Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki». M.: ISIEZ VShE, 2025. 196 s.
