ninagavrilova1976@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\u0410\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0442\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f:<\/strong>\n\u0417\u0430 \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043b\u0435\u0434\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0435\u0441\u043a\u043e\u043b\u044c\u043a\u043e \u043b\u0435\u0442 \u0432 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u0435 \u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0448\u043b\u043e \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435\n\u0443\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u0438 \u0443\u0433\u043b\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432. \u041d\u0430 \u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442 \u043f\u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044f \u043e\u043a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043b\u043e \u0432\u043b\u0438\u044f\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0438 \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\n\u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u0446\u0435\u043d \u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0438\u0445, \u0438 \u0443\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043e\u0431\u044a\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0432 \u0438\u0445 \u0434\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0447\u0438. \u0412 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u0438\u0432\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442\u0441\u044f \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0430\u044f \u0445\u0430\u0440\u0430\u043a\u0442\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430 \u043a\u0440\u0443\u043f\u043d\u0435\u0439\u0448\u0438\u0445\n\u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u044b\u0445 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0440\u043e\u0432 \u0443\u0433\u043b\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432, \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u044f\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0438\u0445 \u0434\u043e\u043b\u044f \u0432 \u043e\u0431\u0449\u0435\u043c \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0435\n\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043d. \u0410\u0432\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043c \u043e\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0435\u043d\u043e, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u0437\u043d\u0430\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0443\u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\n\u043e\u0431\u044a\u0435\u043c\u043e\u0432 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0444\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u0421\u0428\u0410, \u0410\u0432\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0438, \u0418\u043d\u0434\u0438\u0438 \u0438 \u0438\u0445 \u0443\u043c\u0435\u043d\u044c\u0448\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0432 \u041d\u043e\u0440\u0432\u0435\u0433\u0438\u0438,\n\u0418\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0435, \u041a\u0443\u0432\u0435\u0439\u0442\u0435, \u041d\u0438\u0433\u0435\u0440\u0438\u0438 \u0438 \u0412\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0438\u0442\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0432\u044b\u0437\u0432\u0430\u043b\u0438 \u0438\u0437\u043c\u0435\u043d\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u0440\u0435\u0433\u0438\u043e\u043d\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u0441\u0442\u0440\u0443\u043a\u0442\u0443\u0440\u044b\n\u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0433\u043e \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0430 \u043d\u0435\u0444\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u043e\u0432.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSummary:<\/strong>Over the past\nfew years, the share of mineral fuels in the structure of world exports has\ndemonstrated a significant increase. This growth was brought about both by\nchanges in world prices for hydrocarbons and an increase in their production\nvolumes. The article presents the economic characteristics of exports by the\nworld’s largest hydrocarbon exporters and determines the share of oil and\npetroleum products in the total exports of these countries. The author identifies\nthe impact of a significant increase in the volume of exports of petroleum\nproducts by the USA, Australia and India and a corresponding decrease by\nNorway, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria and the United Kingdom on the regional structure\nof global exports of hydrocarbons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u041a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u0432\u044b\u0435\n\u0441\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430:<\/strong> \u043c\u0438\u0440\u043e\u0432\u043e\u0439 \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442, \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0442\u043e\u043f\u043b\u0438\u0432\u043e, \u0443\u0433\u043b\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0434\u044b,\n\u043d\u0435\u0444\u0442\u0435\u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u0443\u043a\u0442\u044b, \u044d\u043a\u0441\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0435\u0440\u044b. <\/p>\n\n\n\nKey words: <\/strong>world export, mineral fuels, hydrocarbons, petroleum\nproducts, oil exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAccording to basic models of trade by\nAdam Smith, David Ricardo, Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin (the Heckscher-Ohlin model), a country should specialize in industries in\nwhich it possess a comparative advantage: it would be optimal for a country endowed\nwith an abundance of natural resources to specialize in their extraction and\nprocessing. However, if the country’s export is based on the sale of just one product\nor a small number of them, the country may encounter the paradox of the\nso-called \u201cimmiserizing growth\u201d. In 1977, The\nEconomist<\/em> newspaper coined the term \u201cDutch disease\u201d to describe the contemporary\nsituation in export sphere of the economy of the Netherlands. Since 1959,\nnatural resources had been actively developed by this country, and there had\nbeen a sharp increase in the volume of exports of the Netherlands due to the\nsoaring production of natural gas. The newspaper\u2019s analysts calculated some economic\nindicators of the country and determined that, on the one hand, the local\ncurrency had strengthened for a short time due to the influx of foreign capital\nbut, on the other hand, the unemployment rate had increased (from 1.1% in 1970\nto 5.1% in 1977). The situation also affected the development of non-extractive\nsectors of the economy, which lost their competitiveness in foreign markets due\nto the investors’ positive bias toward the extractive sector. According to the\nanalysis by The Economist<\/em>, \u201c97\ndeveloping countries with a high ratio of natural resource exports to GDP had\nlow growth rates in the 1970s and 1980s. When the natural resources are\ndepleted, little will remain to maintain the economy… If the countries rich\nin raw materials do not channel their fortunes to diversify their economies or\nlower the real exchange rate, the Dutch disease can become fatal\u201d [1].<\/p>\n\n\n\nIn 2017, after a fall in 2015 and 2016, the value of world exports of goods increased by 11%, mainly due to an increase in the exports of fuel and mining products by 28%. The share of the latter in world exports increased from 13% in 2016 to 15% in 2017. If we consider the exports of mineral fuel in the longer term, from 2001 to 2018, its share in total world exports grew by 3% (Fig. 1). Figure 1 highlights product categories that occupy the most significant places in world exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/qje.su\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Bezymyannyj-15.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nWorld hydrocarbon exports demonstrated the most\nsignificant growth among all product categories except for Electrical and electronic equipment<\/em>, which occupied the leading position\nin the world exports. The average price of oil in 2016 amounted to $40.7 per\nbarrel, but by 2018 it rose to $69.5 per barrel, which was still lower than the\nfigure for 2012, when the oil price peaked at $109.5 dollars per barrel [3].\nFluctuations in oil prices affected global exports in general and hydrocarbon\nexports in particular (Fig. 2).<\/p>\n\n\n\nFluctuations in oil prices during 2018, when the lowest price was observed in February ($59.2 per barrel) and the highest in October ($76.41 per barrel), were influenced by several positive and negative factors. The positive ones included the continued growth of engineering industry, which triggered faster growth in China and the USA, the restoration of economic growth in Russia, etc. The negative ones were the slowdown in economic growth in India, the fall in oil demand in Japan due to the reactivation of several nuclear reactors restored after the nuclear accident at Fukushima, and reduction of energy consumption in the European Union due to high energy prices [4].<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/qje.su\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Bezymyannyj-16.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nBetween 2000 and 2017, world hydrocarbon exports underwent significant changes in the context of regions (Fig. 3). The volume of exports of the African countries decreased over the reviewed period by almost 4%, the European countries \u2013 by 5%, the countries of South and Central America \u2013 by 2%; however, hydrocarbon exporters in Asia, Australia and North America increased their share in world exports by 7.3%, 2.8% and 0.9%, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/qje.su\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Bezymyannyj-17.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nIn 2017, Middle Eastern exports amounted to $961\nbillion, of which more than a half came from fuel and mining products. African\nexports as a whole grew 18% mainly due to increased supplies of oil and\nminerals to the global market; since 2012, African exports grew for the first\ntime. Africa’s oil exporters combined accounted for 35.0% of all African\nexports in 2017, compared with 31.9% in 2016 [3]. Table 1 summarizes the world’s\nlargest hydrocarbon exporters from 2001 to 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is worth noting that over the reviewed period, each of the countries listed in the table significantly increased its hydrocarbon exports in dollar terms. However, the structure of world exports of hydrocarbons underwent significant changes during the period. In 2001-2018, Russia’s position strengthened, and it became the leader in terms of the value of hydrocarbons sold in the world market. The United States, Australia and India significantly increased exports of petroleum products. Norway, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria and the United Kingdom, on the contrary, weakened their positions in the world ranking of the largest exporters of oil and petroleum products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/qje.su\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Bezymyannyj-18.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nTo determine the dependence of countries’ total exports on hydrocarbon exports, the author identified 80 countries, which exported mineral fuels, on the basis of data provided by UNCTAD. Figure 4 shows countries where hydrocarbon exports constitute more than 40% of total exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/qje.su\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Bezymyannyj-19.png\")
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nIn 30 countries of the world, the share\nof hydrocarbon exports exceeds 40%. The highest dependence is observed in\ncountries where share of hydrocarbons in total exports is greater than 90%:\nSouth Sudan (99.3%), Iraq (96.6%), Algeria (96.1%), Nigeria (96.0%), Angola\n(94.9%), Turkmenistan (90.8%), Azerbaijan (90.6%) and Kuwait (90.2%). South\nSudan, which emerged as a result of the division of Sudan into two countries in\n2011, presents an extreme case of nearly absolute dependence on hydrocarbon\nexports [7].<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Concentration of exports in several\ncommodities may drastically increase economic and political risks. Economic\nrisks, first of all, include volatility and instability in obtaining foreign\nexchange earnings, which has severe macroeconomic implications in the form of\nreduced economic growth, higher unemployment, inflation, capital outflows,\ninsufficient foreign investment, etc. Political risks include lower quality of\ngovernance at the national and regional levels, escalation of tensions between\nthe center and the periphery, etc. Export diversification should be aimed at\nmitigating these risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bibliography<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. What Dutch disease is, and why it’s bad. The\nEconomist. Nov 5th 2014.\u042d\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0442\u0440\u043e\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u0435\u0441\u0443\u0440\u0441. URL:\nhttps:\/\/www.economist.com\/the-economist-explains\/2014\/11\/05\/what-dutch-disease-is-and-why-its-bad.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. The International Trade Centre 2018. Electronic\nresource. https:\/\/www.trademap.org\/Country_SelProduct_TS.aspx?nvpm<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. World Trade Statistic Review 2018. World Trade\nOrganization. Electronic resource. URL: https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/res_e\/statis_e\/wts2018_e\/wts2018_e.pdf\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Enerdata. Independent research and consulting firm\nspecialising in the analysis and modelling of the global energy\nmarkets. Global Energy Trends 2019 Edition. Electronic resource. URL:\nhttps:\/\/www.enerdata.net\/ system\/files\/publications\/global-energy-trends-2019-edition-enerdata.pdf\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. World Trade Organization 2018. International trade\nstatistics. Electronic resource. URL: https:\/\/data.wto.org\/.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6. Morozenskaya E.V. Ways Toward the Sustainable\nDevelopment of Africa \/\/ Asia and Africa Today.\n2017, Vol. 4 (717), pp. 43-46 [in Russian].<\/p>\n\n\n\n
7. Kostelyanets S.V. Sudan after the Split of the\nCountry: Seeking to Resolve the Crisis \/\/ Asia and Africa Today. 2014, Vol. 10 (687),\npp. 31-35 [in Russian].<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0423\u0414\u041a 339.564.2 DOI 10.24411\/2413-046\u0425-2019-10043 \u0413\u043b\u043e\u0431\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0440\u044b\u043d\u043e\u043a \u0443\u0433\u043b\u0435\u0432\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u0432 \u0432 21 \u0432\u0435\u043a\u0435: \u043e\u0441\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043d\u044b\u0435 \u0442\u0440\u0435\u043d\u0434\u044b \u0438 \u0440\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0438 Global hydrocarbon exports in the 21 century: general trends and risks \u0413\u0430\u0432\u0440\u0438\u043b\u043e\u0432\u0430 \u041d\u0438\u043d\u0430 \u0413\u0435\u0440\u043c\u0430\u043d\u043e\u0432\u043d\u0430, \u043c\u043b\u0430\u0434\u0448\u0438\u0439 \u043d\u0430\u0443\u0447\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0443\u0434\u043d\u0438\u043a, \u0424\u0435\u0434\u0435\u0440\u0430\u043b\u044c\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0433\u043e\u0441\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0431\u044e\u0434\u0436\u0435\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0435 \u0443\u0447\u0440\u0435\u0436\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043d\u0430\u0443\u043a\u0438 \u2013 \u0418\u043d\u0441\u0442\u0438\u0442\u0443\u0442 \u0410\u0444\u0440\u0438\u043a\u0438 \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0439\u0441\u043a\u043e\u0439 \u0430\u043a\u0430\u0434\u0435\u043c\u0438\u0438 \u043d\u0430\u0443\u043a, \u0426\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0440 \u0438\u0437\u0443\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0431\u043b\u0435\u043c \u043f\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0445\u043e\u0434\u043d\u043e\u0439 \u044d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0438 Gavrilova N.G., Junior Research Fellow, Institute for African […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[107],"tags":[169],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7IyHt-3a8","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12160"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12160"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12160\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12166,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12160\/revisions\/12166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qje.su\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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